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A new study published in the Journal of Adolescent Health suggests that the portrayal of firearm use in movies may contribute to rising firearm-related homicides among young people in the United States. The research found that scenes in top-grossing movies involving guns being used to injure others closely tracked increases in firearm homicides among Americans aged 15 to 24 between 2000 and 2021.
The United States stands apart from other high-income nations in that youth mortality has not declined over the past two decades. In fact, firearm injuries have become the leading cause of death among Americans aged 1 to 24, surpassing car crashes, cancer, and drug overdoses. This trend has been described by public health officials as a crisis.
Yet one potentially influential factor has received comparatively little attention: the portrayal of gun violence in entertainment media. Unlike firearm advertising, which faces restrictions from major networks and online platforms, movies and television remain largely unregulated spaces where real-world firearms frequently appear on screen.
“We have long had an interest in youth firearm use going back to the 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary in Connecticut where a young person attacked and killed numerous students and faculty,” said study author Daniel Romer, the research director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) and lead author of the study.
“Our center had previously tracked violence in the media as a potential influence on young people among other health-related risks, such as smoking and drinking. But that event led us to start tracking the specific portrayal of firearm violence in popular entertainment.”
“We did this because young people are learning how to act in the world and popular figures in entertainment media can serve as role models for their behavior. When those figures use firearms to resolve disputes or protect family and friends, those actions can serve as guides to the young. A good example of that influence was the documented role that portrayal of cigarette smoking in entertainment played in youth initiation of smoking. Such portrayals made smoking appear cool while it ignored the long-term harms.”
“We hypothesized that firearm use in popular entertainment may be another influence on young people who see the need to protect themselves or harm others. Many of those portrayals make it look like firearms are safe for the user and an extremely effective but not particularly bloody way to harm others. They also make their use morally justified for the sake of defending oneself or others.”
“Repeated viewing of these glamorous portrayals could well normalize the use of these weapons for those who see a need to protect themselves and have access to firearms,” Romer said. “It is also important to keep in mind that the United States is unique in the world for being awash in firearms and having high rates of firearm injuries, especially in young people.”
To investigate the relationship between entertainment media and firearm violence among youth, the researchers expanded on a previous study published in 2021 that analyzed portrayals of firearm use in popular television dramas. The earlier study found that the proportion of violent scenes involving firearms on television increased steadily from 2000 to 2018 and closely tracked the rise in firearm-related homicides among young people during that period.
In the new study, the researchers extended their analysis through 2021 and included top-grossing movies in addition to television. They reviewed the top 30 most-watched television dramas each year from 2000 to 2021, as well as the top 30 box office films annually. A total of 49 television series were included, primarily in the police, crime, and medical genres. Using a random sampling strategy, they coded over 18,000 five-minute segments from television episodes and more than 8,000 five-minute segments from movies.
Trained coders evaluated whether each segment included violence and whether a firearm was used to shoot and hit a target. Only scenes in which a firearm was used to harm another person were included in the final analysis. For each year, the researchers calculated the proportion of violent scenes that involved firearm use, creating a timeline of media portrayals over two decades.
These trends were compared to national statistics on firearm homicides and suicides among individuals aged 15 to 24, based on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The study also examined two other possible contributors to rising firearm deaths: increased childhood poverty and greater firearm availability. To assess the role of economic hardship, the researchers analyzed national child poverty rates over time. To evaluate firearm availability, they relied on annual estimates of handgun purchases, derived from background check data.
The study’s key finding was that the portrayal of firearms in movies strongly aligned with the increase in firearm-related homicides among youth. The upward trend in gun violence in top films was best modeled by an exponential curve, suggesting a rapid and accelerating increase over time. This trend matched closely with the exponential rise in youth firearm homicides. Regression models showed that the portrayal of guns in movies accounted for about 45 percent of the variation in firearm homicide rates among young people during the study period.
In contrast, television portrayals showed a weaker link. While the depiction of guns in television dramas did increase over time, especially in early years of the study, the trend flattened in later years and did not uniquely contribute to the prediction of firearm homicides when movie portrayals were accounted for.
“We first explored the role of entertainment media in a study of firearm use in popular TV police dramas such as NCIS and Law and Order,” Romer told PsyPost. “We found that from 2000 to 2018, use of firearms as a proportion of scenes in which violence occurred was directly related to the use of firearms in homicides among US youth ages 15 to 24. In other words, the more actors in those dramas used firearms to inflict harm, the greater the proportion of firearm use in homicides in that age group.”
“In the current study, we extended the analysis to 2021 and also looked at popular top- grossing movies. We replicated the positive relation between firearm use in popular TV dramas and homicides. But even more dramatically, we found the rise in firearm use in movies was even more closely related to the rise in firearm use in homicides.”
The pattern was different for suicides. While suicide rates among youth did rise over the study period, especially after 2008, they followed a U-shaped curve rather than an exponential one. The portrayal of firearms in media did not correlate strongly with youth suicides. Suicide by firearm was rarely depicted in either movies or television dramas. This lack of representation may help explain why suicide trends did not track media portrayals as closely as homicides did.
The researchers also explored whether other factors might explain the trends in youth firearm deaths. One possibility was that increases in childhood poverty following the 2008 financial crisis may have contributed to higher rates of violence and suicide. While child poverty did rise after the recession and remained elevated for several years, its pattern did not align closely with the rise in firearm homicides. In particular, youth suicides increased earlier, while homicides rose later, suggesting distinct influences.
Another explanation considered was increased access to firearms. Handgun sales rose steadily over the two decades studied, and this trend also showed a strong correlation with youth firearm homicides. However, if gun availability were the sole driver, one would expect to see a similar or even stronger effect on suicides.
“What surprised us was that despite the rise in firearm homicides also paralleling the rise in handgun sales, this was unlikely to be the sole cause of the rise in firearm homicides,” Romer explained. “If it were, we would expect it to also show up for suicides, which is considered particularly sensitive to firearm availability. But that was not the case. For suicides, the use of firearms showed a very different pattern with firearm use declining and then increasing over time. This suggested that firearm use in movies not only helped to sell handguns but also the purpose for their use. Firearm use in suicides was very rare in popular movies or TV dramas, and so this use of firearms was less likely to encourage imitation for this purpose.”
There was also limited evidence for reverse causality. That is, the idea that increases in real-world firearm homicides might inspire more gun portrayals in entertainment. While some correlation was found between movie portrayals and prior-year homicide rates, the association was not robust across longer lags. This suggests that if there is a feedback loop between entertainment and real-world violence, it may be relatively short-term and not the main driver of the trends observed.
The researchers acknowledge that the study cannot establish direct causality at the individual level. The analysis was conducted using aggregate national data, which limits the ability to determine whether individuals who watch violent movies are more likely to engage in gun violence. The sample of movies and television shows, while representative of popular content, may not capture all entertainment media consumed by young people, especially online or user-generated content.
“We interpret the findings to suggest that since the firearm industry is largely unable to advertise its products in mainstream media, the frequent portrayal of gun use in entertainment can serve the same purpose,” Romer said. “Indeed, the growth in handgun sales over the period of the study paralleled the rise in movie firearm violence. Nevertheless, our findings were at the aggregate level, and so further research is needed to study the potential effect of entertainment at the individual level.”
“Consistent with a causal explanation, we found the same relation between the rise in movie firearm use and firearm use by both young Black and white people, suggesting that the media’s influence was wide-ranging. At the same time, it is probably most influential in neighborhoods with high levels of violence, which tend to be greater in poor Black communities.”
Future studies are needed to examine these questions more closely. Longitudinal research could track media exposure and subsequent attitudes toward firearms in young viewers. Such studies could also identify whether certain environments, such as high-crime neighborhoods, increase the likelihood of imitation. Experimental work could build on existing studies showing that children who watch movie scenes involving guns are more likely to pick up a real firearm during a simulated task.
“In the near term, it is not likely that research on firearm violence will be supported by NIH or CDC,” Romer said. “Nevertheless, it will be important to study this phenomenon at the individual level in different communities. We would expect that youth with lots of exposure to firearm use in entertainment media and especially those living in more violent neighborhoods are more likely to carry or intend to obtain firearms. That finding would provide even greater support for the role that firearms in entertainment play in promoting firearm use in young people.”
The study, “Firearm Violence in Entertainment Media as a Contributor to the Youth Firearm Health Crisis in the United States,” was authored by Daniel Romer, Patrick E. Jamieson, Lauren E. Hawkins, and Kathleen H. Jamieson.
